# The Strategy Was Hiding in Plain Sight

> Published on ADIN (https://adin.chat/world/the-strategy-was-hiding-in-plain-sight)
> Author: Daniel
> Date: 2026-03-07
> Last updated: 2026-03-08

For months, U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration has looked erratic: Venezuela invaded, Greenland pursued, Iran bombed, Cuba targeted, Argentina bailed out, Somaliland considered for recognition, Russia courted with dollar settlement overtures. Commentators have described the pattern as incoherent, impulsive, or purely transactional.

That view collapses once you take the [2025 National Security Strategy](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf) seriously.

Unlike prior strategy documents--often bureaucratic artifacts drafted to offend no one--the 2025 NSS reads like an operating manual. It rejects the post-Cold War "rules-based order," deprioritizes democracy promotion, and elevates energy, resources, and geography to the core of national security.

When you overlay subsequent U.S. actions onto the NSS framework, the result is striking: **most of what has happened since late 2025 maps directly onto the document's logic**. What looks chaotic in isolation becomes coherent when viewed as a unified strategy aimed at one overriding objective:

> **Constrain China by denying it resources, routes, and partners--while consolidating American control over energy, minerals, finance, and chokepoints.**

## The Core of the 2025 NSS

The strategy is built around six principles, but four matter most for understanding recent actions:

**1. Energy Dominance as Geopolitical Power**
Energy is not an economic input but a weapon. Control over oil, gas, and critical minerals equals leverage over rivals.

**2. Hemispheric Primacy (Monroe Doctrine Revival)**
No external power--explicitly China--should have significant economic or military presence in the Americas.

**3. Resource and Chokepoint Control**
American security may require control of strategic territories, shipping lanes, and transit nodes.

**4. Great-Power Competition on American Terms**
China is the primary adversary. Russia is not inherently an enemy and can be peeled away if incentives align.

This is not ideological foreign policy. It is **materialist** and **geographic**.

## Venezuela: Oil Denial, Not Oil Supply

The [January 2026 intervention in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela) is the clearest execution of the NSS.

The popular explanation--that the U.S. needed Venezuelan heavy crude--doesn't hold. As energy analyst [Anas Alhajji has emphasized](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-motivations-for-seizing-controlling-venezuelan-oil-by-anas-alhajji-2026-01), the U.S. already sources most heavy crude from Canada and does not need Venezuela for refinery balance.

The strategic logic is denial:

- Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves
- China was the primary long-term beneficiary via oil-for-debt arrangements
- Allowing China to lock in those reserves would have given Beijing structural energy security

By seizing control of Venezuelan oil infrastructure and revenues, the U.S. didn't "solve" its energy needs--it **removed China's optionality**.

This is energy dominance as the NSS defines it: **control, not consumption**.

## Cuba: The Next Domino in Hemispheric Primacy

With Venezuela secured, the administration has turned its sights to Cuba. In late January 2026, Trump signed an [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba) designating Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism and tightening sanctions. By March, [Trump declared](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/trump-says-regime-change-in-cuba-is-question-of-time-after-iran) that regime change in Cuba is "a question of time" and that the island is "ready to fall."

Secretary of State Rubio--himself of Cuban descent--has been [conducting secret pressure campaigns](https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/marco-rubio-cuba-secret-talks) on the Díaz-Canel government. [Foreign Affairs analysis](https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2026/03/05/the-coming-showdown-over-cuba/content.html) warns of "The Coming Showdown Over Cuba."

From the NSS perspective, Cuba fits the hemispheric primacy doctrine perfectly:

- Cuba hosts Chinese intelligence facilities and has deepening ties with Beijing
- A hostile Cuba 90 miles from Florida contradicts the Monroe Doctrine revival
- Regime change would complete the elimination of hostile governments in the Caribbean basin
- Cuba's strategic location controls the Florida Straits and Gulf of Mexico access

Trump has floated a ["friendly takeover"](https://amp.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-us-cuba-strategy-9.7095719) and hinted at [potential deals](https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/05/deal-trump-cuba-oil-tourism-blockade/) involving oil exploration and tourism. But the underlying logic is clear: **no Chinese-aligned regime in America's backyard**.

## Argentina: The Transactional Alliance Model

The [$20 billion credit line to Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-says-us-extend-20-billion-credit-line-2025-12-18/) represents the purest expression of the NSS's transactional alliance framework.

President Javier Milei delivered:
- Radical free-market reforms and dollarization push
- Explicit alignment with U.S. foreign policy
- Withdrawal from BRICS discussions
- Rhetorical and diplomatic support for U.S. positions

In return, the Trump administration delivered:
- Massive financial support coordinated with the IMF
- Political backing for Milei's domestic reforms
- A demonstration effect for other regional governments

By January 2026, [Argentina had repaid the U.S. credit line](https://www.ft.com/content/argentina-repays-us-credit-line-2026)--a political win for both leaders.

The message to Latin America is clear: **alignment brings tangible benefits; resistance brings pressure**. This is the carrot that complements the Venezuela and Cuba sticks.

## Greenland: Minerals, the Arctic, and Future Supply Chains

Greenland is explicitly named in the NSS--and the administration's renewed push reflects that.

Greenland offers:
- Rare earths and critical minerals needed for EVs, defense systems, and semiconductors
- Control over emerging Arctic shipping routes as ice recedes
- A hard block on China's "Polar Silk Road" ambitions

This is about **future industrial power**, not present economics. Whoever controls mineral supply chains controls advanced manufacturing. Greenland fits the NSS logic perfectly.

## Iran: Chokepoints, China's Oil, and Energy Leverage

Iran is the most complex case--and the most misunderstood.

The NSS calls for reduced Middle East presence but reserves the right to prevent nuclear breakout and protect energy flows. The [Iran escalation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations) sits precisely at that fault line.

From a China-focused lens, Iran matters because:
- China was Iran's largest sanctioned oil buyer
- Iran sits astride the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of global oil flows
- A nuclear-armed Iran would be a durable China-aligned regional anchor

Striking Iran simultaneously:
- Curtails China's discounted oil access
- Reinforces U.S. dominance over the world's most important energy chokepoint
- Preserves U.S. leverage over global oil prices

This is not about regime change for its own sake. It is about **maintaining energy leverage in a tightening global market**.

## Somaliland: Quiet, Strategic, and Entirely Consistent

Somaliland looks obscure--until you map it.

Recognition would give the U.S.:
- Access to the port of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden
- Influence over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean
- A counterweight to China's military base in Djibouti

Somaliland is a **logistics move**, not a diplomatic gesture. It fits the NSS emphasis on chokepoints, trade routes, and denial of Chinese maritime expansion.

## Russia: The Wedge Strategy and the Dollar System

Perhaps the most counterintuitive element of the NSS is its treatment of Russia--not as a permanent enemy, but as a potential swing power.

[Recent reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/russia-memo-sees-return-to-dollar-system-in-pitch-made-for-trump) that Moscow has floated a return to dollar settlement and joint energy development are not anomalies. They are textbook transactional alignment.

From the NSS perspective:
- A China-Russia axis is the primary long-term threat
- Peeling Russia away weakens China strategically and financially
- Re-dollarization blunts global de-dollarization efforts led by Beijing

This explains why pressure on Russia and overtures to Russia can coexist. The goal is leverage, not loyalty.

## The Pattern, Made Explicit

Seen together, these actions form a closed strategic loop:

```sankey
{"nodes":[{"id":"venezuela","label":"Venezuela Intervention","group":"action"},{"id":"cuba","label":"Cuba Pressure Campaign","group":"action"},{"id":"argentina","label":"Argentina Bailout","group":"action"},{"id":"greenland","label":"Greenland Acquisition","group":"action"},{"id":"somaliland","label":"Somaliland Recognition","group":"action"},{"id":"russia","label":"Russia Rapprochement","group":"action"},{"id":"iran","label":"Iran Military Strikes","group":"action"},{"id":"deny_oil","label":"Deny PRC Oil Access","group":"outcome"},{"id":"secure_minerals","label":"Secure Critical Minerals","group":"outcome"},{"id":"control_arctic","label":"Control Arctic Lanes","group":"outcome"},{"id":"disrupt_bri","label":"Disrupt BRI Corridors","group":"outcome"},{"id":"split_axis","label":"Split China-Russia Axis","group":"outcome"},{"id":"reinforce_dollar","label":"Reinforce Dollar System","group":"outcome"},{"id":"control_hormuz","label":"Control Strait of Hormuz","group":"outcome"},{"id":"prevent_nuke","label":"Prevent Nuclear Breakout","group":"outcome"},{"id":"red_sea","label":"Red Sea Chokepoint Control","group":"outcome"},{"id":"hemispheric_control","label":"Hemispheric Control","group":"outcome"},{"id":"regional_alignment","label":"Regional Alignment","group":"outcome"},{"id":"china_contain","label":"China Containment","group":"strategic"},{"id":"supply_chain","label":"US Supply-Chain Control","group":"strategic"},{"id":"resource_denial","label":"Global Resource Denial","group":"strategic"},{"id":"energy_leverage","label":"Energy Price Leverage","group":"strategic"}],"links":[{"source":"venezuela","target":"deny_oil","value":6,"label":"Seize Orinoco reserves"},{"source":"venezuela","target":"resource_denial","value":4,"label":"Lock in heavy crude"},{"source":"venezuela","target":"hemispheric_control","value":4,"label":"Remove hostile regime"},{"source":"cuba","target":"hemispheric_control","value":5,"label":"Eliminate China foothold"},{"source":"cuba","target":"china_contain","value":4,"label":"Expel Chinese intel"},{"source":"argentina","target":"regional_alignment","value":5,"label":"Reward alignment"},{"source":"argentina","target":"reinforce_dollar","value":4,"label":"Dollarization support"},{"source":"greenland","target":"secure_minerals","value":5,"label":"Rare earth access"},{"source":"greenland","target":"control_arctic","value":4,"label":"Thule & shipping lanes"},{"source":"somaliland","target":"red_sea","value":4,"label":"Berbera port access"},{"source":"somaliland","target":"disrupt_bri","value":4,"label":"Counter Djibouti base"},{"source":"somaliland","target":"resource_denial","value":3,"label":"Gulf of Aden minerals"},{"source":"russia","target":"split_axis","value":5,"label":"Peel Moscow from Beijing"},{"source":"russia","target":"reinforce_dollar","value":4,"label":"Return to USD settlement"},{"source":"iran","target":"control_hormuz","value":5,"label":"Secure Gulf oil transit"},{"source":"iran","target":"prevent_nuke","value":5,"label":"Block nuclear capability"},{"source":"iran","target":"deny_oil","value":4,"label":"Cut PRC Iran imports"},{"source":"iran","target":"energy_leverage","value":4,"label":"Oil price control"},{"source":"deny_oil","target":"china_contain","value":6,"label":"Cuts PRC crude options"},{"source":"secure_minerals","target":"supply_chain","value":5,"label":"Feed US fabs & EVs"},{"source":"control_arctic","target":"china_contain","value":3,"label":"Block Polar Silk Road"},{"source":"disrupt_bri","target":"china_contain","value":4,"label":"Complicate East Africa hub"},{"source":"split_axis","target":"china_contain","value":5,"label":"Strategic wedge"},{"source":"reinforce_dollar","target":"china_contain","value":4,"label":"Limits de-dollarization"},{"source":"resource_denial","target":"china_contain","value":5,"label":"Strategic leverage"},{"source":"resource_denial","target":"supply_chain","value":4,"label":"Command inputs"},{"source":"control_hormuz","target":"energy_leverage","value":5,"label":"Gulf transit security"},{"source":"prevent_nuke","target":"energy_leverage","value":3,"label":"Regional stability"},{"source":"red_sea","target":"china_contain","value":4,"label":"Bab el-Mandeb control"},{"source":"red_sea","target":"supply_chain","value":3,"label":"Shipping lane dominance"},{"source":"energy_leverage","target":"china_contain","value":4,"label":"Market control"},{"source":"hemispheric_control","target":"china_contain","value":5,"label":"Monroe Doctrine"},{"source":"regional_alignment","target":"china_contain","value":3,"label":"Allied network"}]}
```

Every move feeds into:
- Resource denial
- Supply-chain control
- Energy price leverage
- Hemispheric consolidation
- China containment

This is not improvisation. It is execution.

```bubblemap
{"nodes":[{"id":"us_strategy","group":"strategy","label":"2025 NSS Strategy","value":9},{"id":"china","group":"adversary","label":"China","value":10},{"id":"resource_denial","group":"pillar","label":"Resource Denial","value":8},{"id":"energy_dominance","group":"pillar","label":"Energy Dominance","value":8},{"id":"hemispheric","group":"pillar","label":"Hemispheric Primacy","value":8},{"id":"venezuela","group":"action","label":"Venezuela Intervention","value":7},{"id":"cuba","group":"action","label":"Cuba Pressure","value":6},{"id":"argentina","group":"action","label":"Argentina Bailout","value":6},{"id":"greenland","group":"action","label":"Greenland Acquisition","value":7},{"id":"somaliland","group":"action","label":"Somaliland Recognition","value":6},{"id":"russia","group":"action","label":"Russia Rapprochement","value":7},{"id":"iran","group":"action","label":"Iran Strikes","value":7},{"id":"critical_minerals","group":"resource","label":"Critical Minerals","value":6},{"id":"oil_reserves","group":"resource","label":"Oil Reserves","value":6},{"id":"arctic_access","group":"geography","label":"Arctic Access","value":5},{"id":"bab_el_mandeb","group":"geography","label":"Bab el-Mandeb","value":5},{"id":"dollar_system","group":"finance","label":"Dollar System","value":6},{"id":"china_bri","group":"china_network","label":"Belt & Road","value":6},{"id":"china_russia_axis","group":"china_network","label":"China-Russia Axis","value":6}],"edges":[{"label":"strategic pillar","value":3,"source":"us_strategy","target":"energy_dominance"},{"label":"strategic pillar","value":3,"source":"us_strategy","target":"resource_denial"},{"label":"strategic pillar","value":3,"source":"us_strategy","target":"hemispheric"},{"label":"enables leverage","value":2,"source":"energy_dominance","target":"resource_denial"},{"label":"controls","value":3,"source":"venezuela","target":"oil_reserves"},{"label":"denies to China","value":2,"source":"oil_reserves","target":"resource_denial"},{"label":"disrupts","value":2,"source":"venezuela","target":"china_bri"},{"label":"limits access","value":2,"source":"venezuela","target":"china"},{"label":"completes","value":2,"source":"cuba","target":"hemispheric"},{"label":"expels","value":2,"source":"cuba","target":"china"},{"label":"rewards alignment","value":2,"source":"argentina","target":"hemispheric"},{"label":"reinforces","value":2,"source":"argentina","target":"dollar_system"},{"label":"secures","value":3,"source":"greenland","target":"critical_minerals"},{"label":"limits supply chains","value":2,"source":"critical_minerals","target":"resource_denial"},{"label":"controls","value":2,"source":"greenland","target":"arctic_access"},{"label":"blocks expansion","value":2,"source":"arctic_access","target":"china"},{"label":"access via Berbera","value":2,"source":"somaliland","target":"bab_el_mandeb"},{"label":"disrupts corridor","value":2,"source":"bab_el_mandeb","target":"china_bri"},{"label":"counters presence","value":2,"source":"somaliland","target":"china"},{"label":"splits","value":3,"source":"russia","target":"china_russia_axis"},{"label":"return to USD","value":2,"source":"russia","target":"dollar_system"},{"label":"weakens","value":2,"source":"dollar_system","target":"china"},{"label":"alignment","value":2,"source":"china_russia_axis","target":"china"},{"label":"controls Hormuz","value":2,"source":"iran","target":"energy_dominance"},{"label":"cuts imports","value":2,"source":"iran","target":"china"}]}
```

## Conclusion: The NSS Was the Map

The 2025 National Security Strategy is unusually predictive because it is unusually honest. It does not pretend that values drive power. It argues--explicitly--that **control of energy, resources, and geography does**.

The main deviation so far is scale: Iran has escalated beyond the "limited engagement" tone of the document. But even there, the logic holds.

If this strategy fails, it won't be because it was incoherent. It will be because:
- China adapts faster than expected
- Allies resist transactionalism
- Or escalation outruns control

But for now, the evidence is clear:

**The strategy wasn't hidden. People just weren't reading it.**

---

**Sources:**
- [2025 National Security Strategy (White House)](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf)
- [Atlas Shrugged: Decoding Trump's National Security Strategy (American Affairs Journal)](https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2026/02/atlas-shrugged-decoding-trumps-national-security-strategy/)
- [2026 United States Intervention in Venezuela (Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela)
- [The Biggest Questions About Venezuelan Oil (Project Syndicate, Anas Alhajji)](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-motivations-for-seizing-controlling-venezuelan-oil-by-anas-alhajji-2026-01)
- [Trump says regime change in Cuba is 'question of time' (Al Jazeera)](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/trump-says-regime-change-in-cuba-is-question-of-time-after-iran)
- [The Coming Showdown Over Cuba (Foreign Affairs)](https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2026/03/05/the-coming-showdown-over-cuba/content.html)
- [Addressing Threats by the Government of Cuba (White House Executive Order)](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba)
- [Rubio's secret squeeze on Cuba (Axios)](https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/marco-rubio-cuba-secret-talks)
- [What a Deal Between Trump and Cuba Might Look Like (Foreign Policy)](https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/05/deal-trump-cuba-oil-tourism-blockade/)
- [Trump floats 'friendly takeover' of Cuba (CBC)](https://amp.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-us-cuba-strategy-9.7095719)
- [2025-2026 Iran-United States Negotiations (Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations)
- [Russia Memo Sees Return to Dollar System (Bloomberg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/russia-memo-sees-return-to-dollar-system-in-pitch-made-for-trump)